What’s a New Trash Customer Actually Worth?
Revenue isn’t profit. Plug in your numbers and see what new commercial and rolloff business really drops to your bottom line.
A new customer is worth what’s left after the truck, the tip fee, and the fuel — not what’s on the invoice. Use this calculator before you sign any commercial or rolloff deal over $200/month. Defaults are 55% margin on commercial, 35% on rolloff.
Contribution margin is what’s left after the costs that go up when you add a customer — tip fees, fuel, the extra minutes on the route. It’s the real number that tells you if new business is worth chasing.
Monthly front-load $ from new accounts
Monthly rolloff $ from new accounts
Industry average: 50–60%
Industry average: 30–40%
What you spend per month to land these
Monthly contribution
$1,250
$550 commercial + $700 rolloff
Annual contribution
$15,000
Monthly × 12
3-year contribution
$45,000
If you keep these customers 3 years
Where do the 55% and 35% defaults come from?
Front-load commercial added to a route you already run lands around 50–60% contribution. The truck is already going by. The driver is already being paid. The only new costs are extra minutes and the tip fee at the landfill.
Rolloff added to existing dispatch capacity comes in lower — around 30–40%. Tip fees on construction debris are heavier. The truck swap takes longer. Disposal is the biggest line item.
These ranges line up with publicly traded haulers’ reported margins. The big companies pull around 30% adjusted EBITDA on a corporate basis, but route-level contribution is much higher because corporate overhead, debt service, and depreciation come out after.
When should you raise or lower the margin?
Drop it if the new account needs a route detour, an extra trip, or a new truck. Raise it if the customer is already on the route you drive past.
If you don’t know your real disposal cost per ton, that’s the first thing to fix. Most haulers guess. Pull six months of landfill receipts, divide by the tons hauled, and you have a real number.
Read next
The full article on what new business is really worth
Real examples, route-level math, and a 5-step plan to make sure every new account actually pays.
Read the full guide